The Weather Outlook for July

From Cattle Network: The July weather outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center suggests a large portion of the U.S. could have cooler-than-average temperatures and higher-than-average rainfall. To go with that, the center does not forecast any drought development in the bulk of the U.S. for July and possibly beyond. However, the West… Read More »

Position Updates

It’s been a busy few weeks in commodities with an increase in volatility leading to some good opportunities. Headed in to the long weekend, we saw a bit of covering, however I’m reasonably happy with the bulk of my positions. I’m just going to summarize some of my longer time frame trades. Soybeans We saw… Read More »

What will happen with OPEC this Friday?

This from Forex Live… The industry chatter ramps up ahead of the 5th June OPEC meeting In two days we have the 167th OPEC meeting in Vienna and the noise from the members and companies is rising Here’s a run down on what’s been said today OPEC sec Gen El-badri There is enough supply and enough… Read More »

TRADE EXIT – Natural Gas

I took off all my positions in natural gas prior to the release of the storage numbers and boy am I glad I did. I didn’t want to give any of the spreads too much wiggle room and as a result had a pretty tight trailing stop. On Wednesday we closed pretty much on the… Read More »

TRADE EXIT – Soy/Corn

My Soybean – Corn spread has opened the week with a little bit of strength and I’m going to take it off. The soybean contract is due to expire soon and I need to be out by Wednesday, so I’ll exit now on a bit of strength. Overall I’m really happy with this trade. I… Read More »

Can bearish COF help cattle spreads?

I’ve been short a cattle spread (LE V5 – LE G6) for a little over a week and it’s been a tale of two extremes. I picked a beautiful entry at parity and immediately saw it move my way. However in the last few days it’s really retraced on what looks like a little bit… Read More »

Bearish storage pushes NG lower

Fortunately for us we saw a nice build in NG storage on Thursday that helped push NG lower. We came in at 90 vs 83 expected. While front month NG is yet to test the lows, two of my three spreads broke through. My NG N5- NG X5 was the best performer with a clear… Read More »

Natural Gas pushes lower

The last two sessions have seen my natural gas spreads break nicely to the downside. After a little bit of a rally, ironically on the back of an injection into storage, price has fallen away. On Thursday we saw a 63B injection versus a 53B estimate. I’m looking for the front months to really test… Read More »

TRADE – Soy complex

Regardless of what the fundamentals are saying there seems to be a little bit of strength coming into soybeans in recent days. I’m already in a soy/corn spread and another soybean calender  spread. For that reason I’m hesitant to get to overexposed here – especially given the abundant supply. However soymeal has really found support… Read More »

Mixed soybean trade

Soybeans had a positive lead overnight heading into the US session. But from there is was a wild ride. NOPA crush numbers on the surface appeared bullish for soybeans however there still seems to be daily reports on just how big the South American crop is and that continues to weigh. My May 15 Soybean… Read More »