Bearish on meats

I’m currently short both lean hogs and live cattle. On the hog front prices have pushed higher and there is talk that there might have been some strong export business that lead to the recent run up. The same thing that happened last year before we got a sell off. Hogs have been bearish this… Read More »

TRADE – Soybeans/Corn

I’ve been watching the May 15 Soybeans – Corn spread closely over the last couple of weeks, looking for any kind of strength in soybeans. Overnight we started to get some strength on the back of China and I decided to finally get long here a touch below 580. We got some follow through during… Read More »

Is NG about to turnaround?

With the peak demand period for heating behind us, we generally get some moves lower in NG and HO around this time of year. I’ve been short a couple of NG spreads that have been trading very nicely so far. On Monday front month NG hit a new low and on the surface it appears… Read More »

Can plantings push soybeans lower still?

I read an interesting report over the weekend that quantified the results from the recent prospective planting report. We already know that should expectations be met for soybeans, then we’d likely see very high ending stocks at seasons end by historical standards. However what was interesting was that should yields be only average then we’d… Read More »

Is there a turn around in the grains ahead?

On Thursday we saw some interesting numbers that in many ways confirmed the recent trends in the grain markets. Historically we get a rally in soybeans and some weakness in corn this time of year. However soybeans are fundamentally weak right now on the back of large supply both in the US and internationally. While… Read More »

So oil is now in a bull market?

Well that’s the headline from Bloomberg. I’m not too sure that after a fall from $100 we can consider oil to be bullish on any level. Interestingly price has spiked over the last few days on the back of a reduced rig count. From ZeroHedge. Arguably the biggest catalyst for the surge in crude, in… Read More »

Why would you want a bond with a negative yield?

On the surface it does appear strange that anyone would buy a bond with a negative yield. This is even more interesting to me given the real rate of inflation – not that as calculated by CPI. However according to JPM there are plenty of reasons. 1) Investors who fear or expect deflation tend to… Read More »

The 2015 Fireworks

Well what a start it’s been to 2015 with oil now breaking the $50 barrier and the crisis in Europe firmly back on the radar. Our expectation is for 2015 to be a big turning point for the world economy. We’re already seeing weakness in commodities and with the new low in oil overnight, it… Read More »

Are Soybeans headed to $10?

Fundamentals continue to be strong with solid yield forecasts and large planted acres. Some weather uncertainty creeping into the market. The current bounce looks to be a combination of both technical and weather driven. A period of seasonality approaching that has historically  pushed the market lower. Still more room for managed money to continue to… Read More »

Meats Push Higher

As tensions overseas continue to boil, the markets have pulled back from their initial response. We have seen adjustments across the board in stocks, oil, gold and bonds. For now we are watching and waiting and we’ll see what plays out over the weekend. Today I wanted to focus on the meats – specifically cattle.… Read More »