Still more downside in Soybeans?

By | July 17, 2014

We again saw some weakness come back into soybeans in today’s trade.

Even against the backdrop of positive export sales soybeans still found their way lower.

There has been a bounce recently but that appears to just be a bump in the road for now.

More specifically:

  • Fundamentals continue to be strong with solid yield forecasts and large planted acres.
  • Some weather uncertainty has crept into the market.
  • The current bounce looks to be a combination of both technical and weather driven.
  • A period of seasonality approaching that has historically¬† pushed the market lower.
  • Still more room for managed money to continue to get short.

Starting right now we have a downward period of seasonality. That should help keep prices low.

Managed money, while being at a lowish level (net long) in the context of the last five years, still has more room to increase their short positions.

So for now I’d look for the sell off to continue.

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Soy 17th