I took off all my positions in natural gas prior to the release of the storage numbers and boy am I glad I did.
I didn’t want to give any of the spreads too much wiggle room and as a result had a pretty tight trailing stop. On Wednesday we closed pretty much on the stop and I could very well have held on.
However I was a little nervous about the storage number given the action that we saw the previous week.
The last set of storage numbers were actually quite bearish for NG, however price actually rallied. When I get in a situation where there’s some strength in the face of weakness, I’m getting ready to exit. It said to me that there were buyers and probably a lot of people looking to cover and sure enough they did.
A couple of the spreads actually rallied hard to the point that they would have wiped out all the gains to date.
Whilst I was right this time around, I know that picking an exit is not a perfect science. During the week I exited my Soybean/Corn spread only to continue to watch it rally another 15 points, so I’m not getting too ahead of myself.
This week I’m one all on picking good exits.